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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.